Agile Estimation Techniques - Key to Improve Project Planning 🚀

Agile Estimation Techniques - Key to Improve Project Planning 🚀

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Agile estimation estimates the effort required to complete a prioritized task in the product backlog. It also helps to build strong coordination, especially when project X depends on project Y. Agile estimation is essential for any project to predict the budget, time, and effort for successful project completion. It should be chosen based on the project requirements.

With accurate estimation in Agile projects, teams can plan effectively, allocate resources efficiently, manage risks proactively, build stakeholder confidence, increase productivity, control costs, make informed decisions, and enhance customer satisfaction.

Therefore let's talk about estimation techniques in agile projects, and what you can do to improve your estimations.

Key Takeaways About Agile Estimation Techniques Included in Our Video

  • 0:05 First of all, make sure that you involve the development team through collaborative sessions with the team, use their expertise, use it as a way to share domain knowledge in that way you will foster a sense of ownership.
  • 0:21 Secondly, identify what brings the most value in your product and try to cut the scope, identify the risk and uncertainties.
  • 0:31 Then maybe try to differentiate estimation techniques using expert judgment analogy-based estimations or three-point estimation.
  • 0:42 So you have optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimation and relative sizing to get a story point.

6 Key Estimation Techniques in Agile Projects

Agile projects utilize several estimation techniques to ensure accuracy and efficiency in project planning. Here are some key methods:

1. Planning Poker

Planning Poker is a popular technique because it promotes discussion and consensus. Each team member privately selects a card representing their estimate for a task, then everyone reveals their cards simultaneously. If there’s a wide variance in estimates, the team discusses their reasoning and re-estimates. This method is great for fostering collaboration and ensuring all voices are heard.

2. T-Shirt Sizes

Estimating with T-Shirt sizes (XS, S, M, L, XL) is a more high-level approach. Tasks are grouped into these size categories based on their perceived effort. It’s quick and easy, but less precise. This technique is particularly useful in the early stages of a project when you need rough estimates to build an initial roadmap.

3. Bucket System

The Bucket System is similar to Planning Poker but involves placing tasks into pre-defined buckets (e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 hours) without the need for detailed discussion on each one. This method can speed up the estimation process for larger backlogs.

4. Dot Voting

Dot Voting allows team members to distribute a fixed number of dots (votes) among tasks to indicate their estimates. It’s less precise but can be useful for prioritization and for teams looking to quickly gauge consensus.

5. Affinity Mapping

This technique involves sorting tasks into groups of similar complexity and then estimating the groups. It’s a visual and collaborative process that can help the team quickly reach a consensus.

6. Fibonacci Sequence

Using the Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.) for estimation helps teams recognize the increasing uncertainty and complexity of larger tasks. It’s a step beyond simple numbers and helps in appreciating the non-linear nature of effort estimation.

How to Choose The Right Agile Estimation Technique?

Assessing Project Requirements

When choosing an estimation technique, the nature of your project is crucial:

  • Complexity and Size: For complex projects with many interdependencies, detailed techniques like Planning Poker or Fibonacci Sequence are beneficial. They allow for in-depth discussion and more nuanced estimates. On the other hand, simpler projects might benefit from quicker methods like T-Shirt Sizes or Dot Voting, which allow the team to spend more time on development and less on estimation.
  • Time Constraints: If you’re under tight deadlines, a quicker estimation technique might be necessary. T-Shirt Sizes or Dot Voting can provide the estimates you need without extensive meetings. However, remember that less precise estimates might need more frequent revisiting and adjustment.

Evaluating the Team's Experience

The team's familiarity with various techniques can significantly influence the choice:

  • Experience with Estimation: Teams that have experience with a particular technique will be more efficient and accurate with it. For instance, a team accustomed to Planning Poker can provide detailed estimates relatively quickly compared to a team new to the method.
  • Team Dynamics: The effectiveness of collaborative techniques depends on how well the team communicates. Teams with good rapport and open communication can thrive with Planning Poker, where discussions and debates are part of the process. Conversely, if the team is less cohesive or still forming, simpler techniques like T-Shirt Sizes might avoid potential friction.
  • Comfort with Uncertainty: Some teams might be uncomfortable with high levels of uncertainty and prefer detailed estimates (Planning Poker, Fibonacci Sequence). Others might be more comfortable with a high-level approach and can operate effectively with broader categories (T-Shirt Sizes, Dot Voting).

Considering Organizational Culture

  • Agile Maturity: Organizations with a high level of Agile maturity might prefer more sophisticated and collaborative estimation techniques like Planning Poker. These organizations typically value the team’s collective wisdom and have the processes in place to support detailed estimation discussions.
  • Management Expectations: If your organization’s management expects detailed estimates and tight tracking, techniques like Planning Poker or Fibonacci Sequence might be necessary to meet those expectations. On the other hand, if management is more flexible and values speed over precision, simpler methods might be acceptable.

Iterative Approach

Agile is all about continuous improvement:

  • Start Simple: If you’re unsure where to start, begin with a simpler technique like T-Shirt Sizes. This allows the team to get comfortable with estimating without being overwhelmed by complexity.
  • Inspect and Adapt: Regularly review the effectiveness of your estimation technique. In retrospective meetings, discuss what’s working and what’s not. Don’t be afraid to switch techniques if the current one isn’t meeting your needs. For instance, you might start with T-Shirt Sizes and switch to Planning Poker as the team becomes more experienced.

Combining Techniques

Sometimes, a hybrid approach works best:

  • Initial High-Level Estimates: Use T-Shirt Sizes or Dot Voting to get a rough estimate of the entire backlog. This can help in initial planning and prioritization.
  • Detailed Estimation: For critical or complex tasks, use more detailed techniques like Planning Poker or Fibonacci Sequence. This can ensure that high-risk items are accurately estimated.

Involving the Entire Team

In Agile, everyone’s input is valuable:

Collaborative Estimation: Involve the entire team in the estimation process to get diverse perspectives and more accurate estimates. Techniques like Planning Poker and the Bucket System are designed to involve all team members.

Case Study: Using T-Shirt Sizing in a Small Startup for Mobile App Development

Context: A small startup developing a straightforward mobile app needed a quick and effective way to estimate tasks to focus more on coding and testing.
Challenge: The startup had limited resources and time, so they needed a simple estimation technique that wouldn’t take up much of their development time.
Solution: The team chose T-Shirt Sizing for its simplicity and speed.


  • 1. Initial Categorization: During the kickoff meeting, the team categorized user stories into T-Shirt sizes (XS, S, M, L, XL) based on their perceived complexity and effort.
  • 2. Quick Planning: They used these high-level estimates to create a rough project timeline, allowing them to quickly allocate tasks and focus on development.
  • 3. Ongoing Adjustments: As development progressed, the team reviewed and adjusted the estimates during their daily stand-ups, ensuring flexibility and quick pivots if needed.


  • Fast Start: The team was able to start development quickly without getting bogged down in lengthy estimation sessions.
  • Focus on Execution: With high-level estimates, the team spent more time coding and testing, leading to faster progress.
  • Adaptability: The simple T-Shirt Sizing technique allowed for easy adjustments, keeping the project on track.


Agile estimation is a cornerstone for effective project planning and execution, providing a framework to predict budget, time, and effort accurately. The choice of estimation technique should be tailored to the project’s requirements, team dynamics, and organizational culture. Key techniques like Planning Poker, T-Shirt Sizes, Bucket System, Dot Voting, Affinity Mapping, and Fibonacci Sequence each offer unique advantages suited to different project contexts.

Effective estimation fosters team collaboration, enhances stakeholder confidence, and ensures resource efficiency. It involves the entire team, leverages their collective expertise, and promotes a sense of ownership and accountability. Agile projects benefit from a combination of techniques: starting with simpler methods for initial planning and using more detailed techniques for critical tasks.

To improve agile estimations, teams should regularly review and adapt their techniques, ensuring they align with project goals and constraints. By involving the whole team and considering the project's complexity and the team's experience, agile estimation can significantly contribute to the success and adaptability of a project.

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